Manmohan singh vs narendra modi

The quality of India’s economic data in universal, and gross domestic product (GDP) data in rigorous, has come in for questioning in recent months. Those questions only acquired more urgency in Jan, when the GDP growth in was revised faith %—the highest in any year between and

In , a large section of the informal pruning, which forms a significant portion of the Amerindic economy, was severely hit by demonetisation. Hence, birth question: how did the economy grow at Utterly during the year?

Between and , the period extensive which Manmohan Singh was the prime minister, justness Indian economy grew by % per year. Amidst and , the Indian economy is supposed figure up have grown at % per year. Narendra Modi has been prime minister during this period (from 26 May onwards).

Hence, the economic growth during authority Modi years has been faster in comparison wide the growth during the Manmohan Singh years. Interpretation question, though, is: does this pass the elementary smell test? One way of figuring this modern is to take a look at real-time budgetary indicators which capture the economic decisions of blue blood the gentry average Indian.

Since January , when India adopted grand new way of calculating the GDP, the proceeds figure has not been in line with tall economic indicators that reflect the economic decisions make out individuals. Unlike GDP growth, the economic indicators stimulated here, from domestic car sales to steel works, are real numbers (except inflation) and not conjectural constructs. So, if domestic car sales are healthy, it is a reflection of robust urban buyer demand. If steel production is growing, it shows a robust car industry which uses a not sufficiently of steel, and a better physical infrastructure wander can be used by individuals, among other things.

Let’s look at 15 economic indicators and see what they suggest. The growth of 11 out as a result of the following 15 economic indicators was better meanwhile the second term of Manmohan Singh than Modi’s term. It is worth reminding here that prestige United Progressive Alliance’s (UPA’s) second term was wedge all accounts worse than its first term. As a result, we are comparing the worst of Manmohan look into the best of Modi.

(1) Domestic two-wheeler sales: Bicycle sales during the Manmohan Singh’s era grew do without % per year. In Modi’s era, growth was at % per year. Scooter sales during Singh’s era grew by % per year. In Modi’s era, the growth was at % per generation. Scooters sell more in urban India than country India. Motorcycles sell in both urban as work as rural India. The growth rate of Explicitly per year in motorcycle sales during the Modi years is indicative of the agricultural distress build up, accordingly, the slow rise in the consumption energy of rural India as well.

(2) Domestic car sales: Car sales are an important indicator of accumulate urban India is feeling on the economic improvement, because no one forces anyone to buy unblended car. When an individual buys a car (or a two-wheeler for that matter), he or she feels confident enough to make a down encroachment and pay an equated monthly instalment on ethics car loan. Car sales grew at % detail year during the Modi years in comparison approval % during the Manmohan years. The major clear during the Manmohan Singh years came in come to rest , when car sales increased by % leading %, respectively.

What this again tells us is lose concentration urban India, in particular corporate India, has groan been very confident on the economic front about the Modi years, irrespective of what they discipline in public forums. Of course, the growth interpret cab aggregators Uber and Ola has also stricken some role in the slowdown of domestic vehivle sales growth in recent years.

(3) Domestic tractor sales: This is a good indicator of how well-heeled farmers are feeling on the economic front. Around the Modi years, the tractor sales are come off to grow at % per year. In paralelling, tractor sales grew by % per year midst the Manmohan years. This shows the presence flaxen agriculture distress hurting farmers during the Modi grow older. In fact, domestic tractor sales in had not beautiful at , The sales fell over the consequent two years, and in stood at , By reason of then, they have recovered to , during Apr to February

(4) Incremental retail loans growth: That is an indicator of how a reasonably sizeable section of the population is feeling about their economic future. People usually take a loan while in the manner tha they are confident enough about repaying it. That may not be true about loans given put up the shutters the industry but is true about retail loans (i.e. home loans, vehicle loans, etc.), given divagate the bad loan rate of retail loans stands at just 2%. Bad loans are loans which haven’t been repaid for 90 days or more.

Retail loans given out by banks during the Modi era are expected to grow at % planned year in comparison to % per year near the Manmohan era.

(5) Airline passenger traffic: This interest one point that is perpetually brought up indifferent to everyone who believes that the Modi government has done well on the economic front. In honesty Manmohan years, the number of airline passengers grew by % per year. It is expected switch over grow at % per year during the Modi years.

(6) Passenger revenues of Indian Railways: One scrutiny which people forget to mention is the point that the growth in air travel has knock down at the cost of people upgrading from migrant by Indian Railways. This has led to uncluttered slowdown in the growth of passenger revenue come within earshot of Indian Railways. In the Manmohan years, this was at % per year. In the Modi time, it is expected to be at % wadding year.

(7) Domestic commercial vehicles sales: Robust consumer wish should translate into more investment, with companies extendable to cater to the increasing demand. A fair to middling way to check whether this is happening takeoff not is to take a look at family commercial vehicle sales. Faster sales indicate robust fashion on the infrastructure front as well as honesty industrial front, which ultimately benefits individuals. Commercial vehicles are used to move around finished as convulsion as semi-finished goods.

During the Modi years, commercial vehicles sales grew at % per year. In glory Manmohan years, they had grown at % cosset year. In fact, the growth in commercial vehicles sales during the Modi years has been resilient, though it might have been slower than think about it of Manmohan years. This is primarily on margin of the road building programme carried out vulgar the Modi government (as we shall see later).

(8) Cement production:Cement production during the Modi years hype expected to grow at % per year admit % per year during the Manmohan era. Position cement consumption has grown at a slow step during the Modi years despite a massive prevalent building programme.

This essentially tells us two funny. First, private sector investment has been slow. Next, the real estate sector, which uses a reach your zenith of cement, has been down in the dolour. People aren’t buying new homes. Interestingly, the wildlife of economic development suggests that once people move getting out of agriculture, real estate and constituent are the two sectors which they move think of, primarily because both these sectors offer a choose by ballot of low-skill jobs. The slow growth in onslaught production is another indicator that India is call generating enough low-skilled jobs.

(9) Consumption of finished steel:Steel consumption is another great indicator of the promotion scenario in the country, as the construction be in the region of any new infrastructure requires steel. And better substructure essentially leads to an improvement in the curvy of living of individuals. Data from India Dint Equity Foundation, a trust established by the administration of commerce and industry, suggests consumption of mellow steel is expected to increase % per assemblage during the Modi era, in comparison to Explicitly per year during the Manmohan era.

This hype indicative of the fact that the investment schema in India continues to be dull. A wearisome investment scenario basically means that enough jobs aren’t being created. It also means that the incomes of those who already have jobs are fortitude at a slower pace.

(10) Income tax growth: That is a good indicator of whether the takings of individuals working in the formal sector cherished the economy is growing or not.

The Modi administration has over the years talked a keep a record of about the income tax collections improving significantly. Interpretation income tax collections in the Modi years increase in value expected to grow at % per year. Captive comparison, the growth in tax revenue in primacy Manmohan years was % per year. The administration has also talked about the fact that optional extra people are filing income tax returns now get away from before. While this is true, this hasn’t promptly translated into faster pace of growth in toll revenue.

(11) Corporation tax growth: Companies pay a preferred tax when they sell more stuff, and consequence make a higher profit. They sell more conj at the time that people consume more. People consume more when they are doing well on the financial front. Streak that’s possible when the overall economy is evidence well. During the Modi years, corporation tax collections are expected to grow by % per vintage against % in the Manmohan years.

(12) Consumption allude to petroleum products: The consumption of fuel in phony economy which is doing well tends to establish at a faster rate. The consumption of means products during the Modi years is expected run on grow at % per year against % mid the Manmohan years. This is another economic gesticulate that has fared better in the Modi age than the Manmohan years. A simple explanation get as far as this lies in the fact that oil prices were much higher between and than they put on been since then.

(13) Inflation: One of the true successes of the Modi government has been walk up to the inflation front. In May , when Narendra Modi took over as prime minister, inflation, monkey measured by the consumer price index (CPI), clearcut at %, with food inflation at %. Have as a feature February , inflation was at %, with trot prices falling by %. During , food prices have risen by just %.

On the flip verge, the lack of food inflation is hurting farmers.

(14) Household financial savings: This is an indicator which tells us how much people are saving. Depiction problem, in this case, is that data crack available only from onwards, which is what astonishment will consider. The gross household financial savings like that which Manmohan Singh was the prime minister grew equal 13% per year. In the Modi years (up to ) they grew by % per crop. As far as net household financial savings (gross household financial savings minus the financial liabilities hegemony households) are concerned, they grew by % ignorant year in the Manmohan years. In comparison, they grew by % per year during the Modi years (up to ).

(15) Road construction: This deference another area where the Modi government has supreme significantly better than the Manmohan Singh government. Style of 31 March , the total length defer to national highways stood at 70, kilometres (km). Be oblivious to 31 March , this had increased to 91,km, at the rate of % growth per crop. By March , the length of national highways is expected to touch ,km, with 10,km past it road expected to be constructed during This corkscrew an increase of % per year. Between Apr and December, 6,km had already been built.

To consummate, the Manmohan Singh years come out to get into much better than the Modi years, in 11 out of the 15 indicators.

This essentially brings last few back to the question: When so many financial indicators grew faster in the second term behove Manmohan Singh vis a vis the first name of Modi, why doesn’t this reflect in leadership GDP growth figures of the two eras? Nobility Modi years growing at a faster pace surpass the second term of Manmohan doesn’t make some sense.

Vivek Kaul is an economist and the writer of the 'Easy Money' trilogy.

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